22. Man vs Machine Learning: Gameweek 17 "Go Corona Go"

My team slightly extended its lead over the Machine again to take the total scores to 987 vs 914 after 16 gameweeks. Both teams had above average gameweeks on paper, but the week was a disaster with fixture postponements due to Covid, injuries and benchings. 

The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 16
• DCL to Wood barely paid off - DCL's game itself was postponed while Wood blanked at home to Sheffield
• Chilwell got an assist, but Reece James never turned up
• Captain Vardy only made a cameo this week
• Mccarthy, Bruno, Robertson and Bamford were the only players to get any sort of returns
• Green arrow from 880k to 785k

• Gameweek 17
• The next four gameweeks to look at are GW 17, 19, 20 and 21 because the plan is to play the free hit in GW 18
• Reece James to Cancelo is the transfer that has been made
• All 11 players have a Double in GW 19
• Vardy has been chosen as the captain again

Expected number of returns for GW 17, 19, 20 and 21 per position according to the Machine for DGW players

My Team

• Gameweek 16
• Last gameweek, I moved DCL to Wood but it did not really pay off
• Liverpool got a double clean sheet and Bamford got double assists
• Captain Salah blanked again
• Adams, Grealish and Wood disappointed
• Dallas with 12 points was the big difference and the only reason he came on was because Spurs' game was postponed
• Taylor was injured 8 mins into the game and Bruno got a late, late assist
• Green arrow from 120k to 84k

• Gameweek 17
• Taylor's injury and the newly announced fixtures have thrown a spanner into the transfer plans
• For now, the move Taylor to Coufal has been done
• GW 18 will mostly see me playing the free hit
• GW 19 could see a variety of options, but a hit seems inevitable - whether it will be the bench boost or not
• I have chosen Son as the captain, hoping that he will exploit Leeds' defence 

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21. Man vs Machine Learning: Gameweek 16

My team extended its lead over the Machine by 10 more points to take the total scores to 931 vs 865 after 15 gameweeks. Both teams had above average gameweeks on paper, but the scores were underwhelming. 

The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 15
• Getting rid of Rashford for a hit to get Salah did not pay off with Big Sam's team not giving Salah any space
• Chilwell and James surprisingly played but blanked anyway
• Captain Vardy got a late return and Bruno got a haul again, contributing the bulk of the points this week
• Mccarthy and Bamford got returns as well
• Red arrow from 789k to 880k

• Gameweek 16
• The next four gameweeks to look at are GW 16, 17, 19 and 20 because the plan is to play the free hit in GW 18
• Grealish and Calvert Lewin are the only ones to not have a DGW in this current team
• This week the Machine is saving a transfer as no single move is worth the gain according to the predictions
• Vardy has been chosen as the captain again
• Chilwell and James continue to be rotation risks, so the team could well be down to 10 or even 9, if Kilman doesn't play

Expected number of returns for GW 16, 17, 19 and 20 per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 15
• Last gameweek, I moved Chilwell to TAA and it almost paid off immediately. But the late West Brom equaliser cost my double Liverpool defence 10 points, including bonus
• Son and Grealish blanked, with the latter's 4th yellow becoming a matter of concern now
• Captain Salah blanked against a tight West Brom defence to keep the overall score quite low
• Martinez got yet another good score to carry the week, along with Bruno
• Dallas kept a surprising clean sheet but Adams missed out vs Fulham
• Green arrow from 132k to 120k

• Gameweek 16
• DCL has been sold again. The move DCL to Wood has been made for free
• My plan to upgrade Forster and Mitchell with 2 free transfers before GW 19 and play the bench boost in GW 19 is still on
• Forster to Fabianski and Mitchell to Coufal are the two moves that have been queued for now, barring any unexpected surprises
• I've chosen Salah as the captain again for this week, hopefully Newcastle are easier to break down than West Brom were in the second half

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20. DGW Planning in Full Flow after a High Scoring Gameweek

My team holds quite a good lead over the Machine after the previous week to take the total scores to 879 vs 823 after 14 gameweeks. While both teams did alright, the Machine had a bad gameweek given the average was so high this week. 

This week, both teams stepped up their Double Gameweek Plans with code changes being implemented on the Machine's side and some manual planning on the human side. However, both teams have been hit by Chelsea defender injuries to varying degrees. 

 The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 14
• Zaha to Rashford was the transfer that was made. Rashford somehow blanked in a 6 goal demolition of Leeds.
• Chilwell and James got a total of 1 point despite a Chelsea clean sheet
• Captain Vardy, Bruno, Robertson and Grealish hit big scores
• Green arrow from 872k to 789k

• Gameweek 15
• The next four gameweeks to look at are GW 15, 16, 17 and 19 because the plan is to play the free hit in GW 18
• The team already has 9 players for the Double Gameweek but the bench is weak, so the expectation is to play the Triple Captain chip in GW 19
• The transfer that has been made is Salah and DCL in for Rashford and Kane. For a hit.
• Vardy has been chosen as the captain again though
• Chilwell and James continue to be doubts, so the team could well be down to 10 or even 9, if Kilman doesn't play
• But Salah was rated so highly for the next 4 games that it was still the best move to make

Expected number of returns for the next 3 Gameweeks + GW 19 per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 14
• Last gameweek, I ended up doing a late, late move from KdB to Son and Stephens to Soucek just before the price changes
• The idea was that the cash saved from KdB it would allow me to build a more balanced DGW team and keep the option of bench boost open
• Bamford, Adams and DCL together got just 8 points but they all had pretty tricky fixtures
• Robertson, Chilwell and Dallas did not keep clean sheets but secured attacking returns to ensure that no one blanked yet
• Captain Bruno and Salah both hit amazing heights this week
• Robertson and Grealish also hit double digits to ensure that this week saw a massive score
• Son blanked, but got only 3 points less than KdB. Hopefully he gets somewhere near KdB's score next week as well
• Taylor was on course for 11, but ended up on 5 after a late clean sheet loss. Can't really complain about it.
• Green arrow from 271k to 132k

• Gameweek 15
• I have finally decided a transfer well in advance this week: Chilwell to TAA and the move has already been made
• The money earned from selling KdB has now been spread to the bench as well as my defence
• My plan is to upgrade Forster and Mitchell in the coming weeks before GW 19 and play the bench boost in GW 19, with the free hit being played in GW 18
• DCL to Wood, Forster to Fabianski and Mitchell to Coufal are the three moves I'm considering before the DGW
• Salah is the captain of this team and I'm honestly questioning why I ever choose to captain someone else, given his consistency and reliability over the last few years

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19. Man vs Machine Learning: Contrasting Fortunes as DGW Planning Starts

My team significantly extended its lead over the Machine this week to take the total scores to 787 vs 749 after 13 gameweeks. While my team did decently well, the Machine had a horror gameweek. Once again, the Machine's maverick team was its downfall.

Moving ahead, I have made some changes to the code to help the machine adjust to the upcoming DGWs and understand what it means to have blanks and doubles. For now though, since it looks ahead only four gameweeks, it is agnostic of that information.

 The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 13
• Walker to Reece James was the transfer that was made. Walker didn't show up but James blanked too.
• Chilwell and Robertson got assists despite losing their clean sheets
• Bamford chipped in with a solitary goal in a 5-2 demolition of Newcastle
• Each and every other player blanked in the team, a complete shitshow for the Machine
• Red arrow from 654k to 872k

• Gameweek 14
• There were a few transfer options that were quite similarly rated
• Zaha to Son, Zaha to Rashford, Bowen to Mahrez and Bruno to Salah were the candidate transfers
• In the end, Zaha to Rashford was the transfer that had a significant difference in both the next four weeks as well the very next gameweek
• Vardy has been chosen as the captain again
• It is interesting to note that Salah is expected to be the highest scorer in the next 1 as well as 4 gameweeks but the ML team still doesn't own him
• The three defenders and the three forwards are the best for the next four gameweeks according to the Machine
• I do worry for the Machine as it continues to make what seem to me as risky moves, especially in its captaincy
• However, the Machine does already have 9 out of its 11 starting players as part of the double gameweek already. So planning for that should hopefully not be as tricky.

Expected number of returns for the next 4 Gameweeks per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 13
• Last gameweek, I ended up doing a late move from Walker-Peters to Charlie Taylor and saved my second transfer
• Bamford, Adams and DCL all returned in games that took place simultaneously
• Robertson, Chilwell and Dallas did not keep clean sheets but secured attacking returns to ensure that no one blanked yet
• Captain KdB blanked, but his 2 bonus were a pleasant surprise
• Salah and Martinez got decent returns, with Bruno and Grealish the only guys to completely blank
• No one got a massive score but it was a week of many small wins
• Green arrow from 451k to 271k

• Gameweek 14
• I haven't finalised my moves this week either
• One move I'm strongly considering is KdB to Son - and carrying over the second free transfer
• The idea is to build towards a bench boost team in GW 19 and navigate GW 18 with a free hit
• The money that the above move gives could then be used to upgrade Forster, Stephens and Mitchell in the upcoming weeks to a 4.5 keeper, Soucek and a West Ham defender.
• I could then also move out Grealish and DCL for someone like Bowen and Werner/Ings in time for the DGW
• Every team risks going without a premium player and if KdB is that risk for me, it would open a lot of doors for the next few weeks
• Of course, any move that involves selling KdB is not without its risks, especially since almost all my mini league rivals own him. The hope is that Son doesn't lag too far behind KdB
• The alternative moves are Grealish to Bowen or burning a transfer - neither of which are as appealing
• Bruno is my captain against a Leeds side that are gung-ho and thin at the back

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18. Man vs Machine Learning: Chugging along nicely into the midweek

My team narrowly extended its lead over the Machine this week to take the total scores to 726 vs 714 after 12 gameweeks. Both teams had decent weeks, although the Machine's risky captaincy pick did not pay off. More often than not, that has been the case this season and if the Machine had picked relatively safer picks, it would be better off.

The pattern of Saturdays being good days for me and Sundays being good days for the machine continued as it made its weekly comeback in the late games yet again.

Also, my manual error from two weeks ago proved useful to the Machine in the end with Kyle Walker getting more points in his one game than Reece James did in two. 

 The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 12
• Ziyech to Zaha was the transfer that was made - and Zaha blanked despite looking lively
• Bowen and Bamford got assists in the early kickoff
• Mccarthy and Walker's clean sheets kept the scoreboard ticking 
• Bruno was a captaincy blank against Man City, with a penalty being disallowed due to offside in the buildup
• Kane and Vardy got much needed hauls on Sunday to finish on 59 points
• Red arrow from 652k to 654k

• Gameweek 13
• Walker to Reece James is the recommended transfer and the transfer has been made
• No Salah or KdB in the team still
• Vardy is the captain vs Everton, marginally over Bruno vs Sheffield

Expected number of returns for the next 4 Gameweeks per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 12
• Last gameweek, I saved my transfer
• It was a fairly good start with Bamford getting an assist, and all three strikers ended up returning with Adams' 8 points the highlight
• At the back, Martinez got a good double digit score and Southampton shut out Sheffield to give Walker-Peters his cleansheet
• Salah got the jammiest of penalties to get the captaincy points home
• Big names Robertson, Chilwell, Bruno, KdB and Grealish all blanked
• Green arrow from 507k to 451k

• Gameweek 13
• I am yet to decide what I'll be doing this week
• Some of the potential moves include Chilwell to James, Adams to Watkins/Wilson
• With two transfers in hand, it's likely I'll use at least one of them
• KdB has the arm band against West Brom at home

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17. Man vs Machine Learning: Manual Error Sabotages Machine

For the first time since GW 7, Man has taken a narrow lead over the Machine. But it wasn't without controversy after a major manual error has thrown the Machine's team into a fix. 

I hold my hand up and take full responsibility for inadvertently sabotaging the Machine's team. When I looked at the four-week predictions for last week, Reece James was the clear pick for replacing the injured Lucas Digne. However, at the time of making the transfer, I happened to look at the one-week predictions (which I use to pick the captain) and that showed Kyle Walker at the top of the list.

Not only did Reece James get an assist, 5 points and rise in value, but he's also at the top of the defender predictions for the next four weeks. Kyle Walker on the other hand, didn't turn up vs Fulham and played midweek in the Champions League. So it's basically a waste of another transfer to end up with the same team. But it's not even that straightforward. To add injury to this insult, Hakim Ziyech's injury means that the Machine's team is down even more players. 

Needless to say, I will verify multiple times before I make a change to the Machine's team from now on. 

(In what is only a fitting punishment, Google Chrome crashed after I typed out this entire post and I have had to do this all over again. I guess this is the Machine's way of taking revenge)

 The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 11
• Vardy captain with a late return bailed the team out again
• The team was down to 9 men after a blank gameweek and the Walker absence
• No Man City coverage really hurt the team this week
• Bamford and Kane continue to deliver - the strikers really came good this week
• Red arrow from 402k to 652k

• Gameweek 12
• Walker to Reece James is the recommended transfer
• However, with Ziyech's injury, Zaha coming in for him would be the transfer that will be made. I'll wait to see if there is any late team news 
• No Salah or KdB in the team
• Bruno is captain vs Man City
• This week's team selection really feels maverick with the choice of transfer as well as the captain!
• This could be another bad gameweek, especially if Walker and Kilman don't show up again

Expected number of returns for the next 4 Gameweeks per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 11
• Ended up doing Watkins to Adams for a hit, but it didn't pay off
• However, it was a good week with both Salah and KdB returning big scores
• Bamford, Bruno, Robbo, Kwp and DCL made sure it was a very solid week, despite being down to 10
• Green arrow from 590k to 507k

• Gameweek 12
• I will be saving transfer this week, I don't see too much that can be accomplished with a single transfer
• DCL could go out but I don't see anyone worth getting rid of him for
• Salah has the captaincy despite playing 90 mins in the CL

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16. Man vs Machine Learning - Virus Postponement Hits Teams Hard

The Machine has slightly extended its lead on my team again to 11 points now after a decent gameweek for both the teams.

 The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 10
• Vardy captain with a late assist bailed the team out
• Bowen and Grealish got massive hauls on the last day as well
• Bruno continues to bag the points
• Green arrow from 625k to 402k

• Gameweek 11
• Grealish stays in the team despite no game
• Digne injury means Walker comes in for him
• No Salah still
• Vardy is captain again vs Sheffield
• One disclaimer with this week's predictions is that due to the blank that Villa has, their next 4 gameweels have only 3 opponents. This means that the goals scored by their opponents in the last four gameweeks is lesser than expected, so it assumes that they are weak attackers (but it's actually because they have played only 12 games compared to 16 by the other teams' opponents). This will be fixed in the next update. So those defenders with a blank gameweek coming up are boosted up and those attackers with a blank gameweek are pushed down. 

Expected number of returns for the next 4 Gameweeks per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 10
• Ended up doing Son to Salah and captaining him
• Salah, KdB and Rashford should really have done better but they all returned at least
• Bamford and Watkins were really unlucky not to score. Robertson lost his clean sheet late too.
• In the end, Chilwell and Dallas returned to take the team to a fairly decent 60 points
• Green arrow from 690k to 590k

• Gameweek 11
• I did Rashford to Bruno on Monday night assuming only 3 days were left and nothing much would change
• With triple Villa, I was forced into taking a hit. Adams comes in for Watkins
• KdB has the armband

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