12. Gameweek 7 Preview: Man vs Machine Learning

The Machine's Team

I discovered a bug in the Machine's predictions because of the nature of Fantasy Football Scout data. Sterling was named as "Sterling (Raheem)" in the pre-2021 members tables and as "Sterling" from this season onwards. Thus, the Machine assumed they were different players and this affected Sterling's predictions. The same issue also affected other players such as Enda Stevens, Aaron Cresswell, Dendoncker, Andros Townsend and most importantly, Harry Kane and Patrick Bamford! Unfortunately this affected the nature of predictions for these particular players. The necessary corrections have now been made.

• Gameweek 6
• Antonio captain (vs Man City of all teams) turned out to be a genius move
• Son with a double digit haul
• Three clean sheets from Saiss, Castagne, Mccarthy
• Green arrow from 1.3 million to 1 million

• Gameweek 7
• Antonio is out injured for a month
• Castagne is injured till the international break
• After the corrections, Harry Kane is predicted to be the best option in the next 4 weeks and the best captain next week
• Bamford is now high on the predicted points table too
• The time to wildcard for the Machine has come and the trigger has been pulled
• This team below has 1.6 million in the bank (Digne would be in over Saiss if he was not suspended)
• Maupay is predicted to get 0.01 returns more than Wilson so he might be there in the final team
• Big decisions that I would never make: No Son, Bowen over Grealish, Zaha being picked

Expected number of returns for the next 4 Gameweeks per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 6
• Bad gameweek but overall it was a very low scoring week so it shouldn't matter much
• Chilwell, Dallas, Son and Kane the only returns
• Salah unlucky to not haul

• Gameweek 7
• I have 2 free transfers but no move has been made yet
• Potential moves include: Kilman, Grealish, Bamford or a bench strengthening move
• Kane captain over Salah with the assumption that Brighton are a worse defensive team than West Ham

There is just 6 points in it now so it's pretty competitive. Now that the Machine has used its wildcard, we're entering the crucial middle phase of the season with neither one of us having pulled away.

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11. Gameweek 6 Preview: Man vs Machine

The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 5
• No Kane and KdB injury was not good for the team
• Captain Salah helped the team cross 50
• Red arrow to 1.3 million from 730k

• Gameweek 6
• KdB out for Bruno Fernandes 
• Antonio captain(!!) vs Man City 

Expected number of returns for the next 4 Gameweeks per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 5
• Wildcard team did well, getting a total of 86 points with Captain Kane getting a beautiful 32 points. Son and Robertson did well too while Chilwell looked promising.
• Pulisic and Watkins did not look exceptional, but overall a pleasant return having pulled the trigger on the wildcard
• Nice green arrow to 662k from 1.5 million

• Gameweek 6
• Saving a transfer despite James Rodriguez's injury. Hoping he comes back immediately. If not, there will be the flexibility of 2 free transfers for next week
• Mo Salah captain, Harry Kane vice captain

I have now taken a 19 point lead after 5 gameweeks. There is still a long way to go and the machine is yet to use its wildcard so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

10. Gameweek 5 Preview: Man vs Machine - Wildcard and a Hit

Solid 60+ scores for both teams in what can only be described as a freak gameweek and the Machine's captaincy choice was the big factor in letting it keep up with me. It maintains a 20 point lead and here is a summary of how Gameweek 3 went and a preview for Gameweek 4

The Machine's Team

• :)
• Southampton's defensive improvement has proved fruitful with a 9 point return from the goalkeeper Mccarthy. The Saints have improved since their shambolic display against Spurs and it could be a sign of things to come
• Calvert Lewin and Antonio continue to tick away with solid returns, even if they have not been explosive in the past couple of weeks
• Captain Salah once again proving he is reliable in almost every game with a brace against Villa giving yet double digit haul
• Wolves were atrocious in attack but Saiss with 8 points returned with a clean sheet and bonus against an abject Fulham side 
• :(
• Double Liverpool defence had its harshest game yet with Liverpool conceding a whopping 7 goals vs Villa. Robertson still looked good in attack but TAA had a game to forget
• A lot of players had massive hauls this week and the machine's team dodged them all. Watkins, Son, Grealish, Kane, Rodriguez all put up some eye watering scores in yet another high variance gameweek
• Leicester were poor against West Ham - Barnes had a goal disallowed in the last minute and new signing Castagne could only muster the solitary point
• Man City are not finding their groove yet - the absence of a striker looks to be really hurting them  
• Gameweek 5
• Ings and Barnes have gone out for a -4
• In come Son and Maupay
• Both Son and Maupay have some favourable fixtures coming up, so you can see why the Machine would go for them
• Mo Salah is chosen as captain for the fourth week in a row

Expected number of returns for the next 4 Gameweeks per position according to the Machine

My Team

• :)
• A much better gameweek in terms of points, although it be could have definitely been better
• Mccarthy with 9 points gave some much needed joy
• I was wrong about James Rodriguez. "James Rodriguez looks like he isn't going to be a great FPL asset as he is not even on penalties" is what I wrote last week but this week he bailed me out with 18 points. I am still not convinced entirely but he's heavily involved and takes all their set pieces so he hopefully will continue to tick along
• Saint Maximin coming off the bench with his 12 points and Salah getting his brace in the Villa game proved critical to getting a decent score in the end
• :(
• Che Adams continues to disappoint, even a home game against West Brom didn't help
• Werner had another frustrating outing. He clearly wanted to take a penalty once the game was done but he wasn't allowed to do that either
• Jimenez and Wolves looked like they ran out of ideas in attack vs Fulham
• KdB had a frustrating day, hitting the post once but not really having too many clear cut opportunities. Another captaincy blank this week.
• Gameweek 5
• The wildcard has been activated, to get rid of the dross and capitalise on some fixture swings
• Out go Che Adams, Timo Werner, Vinagre, Saint Maximin and Jimenez
• In come Son, Dallas, Watkins, Robertson, Chilwell
• The current draft is below and key decisions left to make involve a couple of positions
• KdB's injury means I could go for Kane
• KdB, Kane, Grealish, TAA and Calvert Lewin are the maybes in my team as of now. I'll make the final team after the press conferences

And this is how the table looks after GW 4. No change in the total points and both teams ticking along. Hopefully I'll join the Machine's team in the top 1 million this gameweek and kick on from there

9. Gameweek 4 Preview: Man vs Machine - Machine pulls away despite Transfer Blunder

The Machine has put some distance in the table now and leads me by around 20 points. Although it is early days, I think it's safe to say that the Machine is not going to be a pushover by any means. Here is a summary of how Gameweek 3 went and a preview for Gameweek 4

The Machine's Team

• :)
• Ings once again proved to be a solid pick with his consistency in scoring goals. He's the kind of player I always feel is an obvious pick in hindsight but never seem to have in my team at the right moments, so good pick by the Machine to have him from the start. 
• TAA and Robbo once again got double returns, this time in attack. With the way Liverpool are dominating teams for fun and goals, assists, clean sheets being multiple avenues of point scoring, the double up on them should be rewarding in future weeks as well. 
• Captain Salah giving the first captaincy return and Calvert Lewin scoring on his debut in the team ensured a solid score above 50 
• A Mccarthy clean sheet gave some reassurance that Saints could yet be a viable defensive option.
• :(
• The main sad point is the transfer out of Vardy to get KdB in for a -4. The Machine was a victim of Vardy's hattrick, just like most of us but it is especially disheartening for it given the fact that Vardy was in its team till GW 2. Harvey Barnes blanking despite 5 goals going in was disappointing too.
• Wolves defence and a late, late clean sheet wipeout for Doherty, who up until then was on 2 bonus points
• Man City looked lackluster. KdB has some good games coming up though. 
• Antonio ended with a blank but he looked threatening and despite his difficult fixtures, he should still be a goal threat and a decent pick at the price.  
• Gameweek 4
• Castagne comes in for Matt Doherty using the free transfer
• This is the first new player that the Machine has chosen to do well, and while the system to pick new signings and player switches isn't perfect still, he has looked good in the first few weeks so it hopefully turns out well for the Machine's sake.
• Salah is the chosen captain once again, ahead of KdB and Antonio according to the Machine.
• The team looks fairly solid with a bunch of good home fixtures  

Expected number of returns per position according to the Machine

My Team

• :)
• Not much to smile about for the second week runing
• Double Southampton provided meager, but much needed returns with a clean sheet from Mccarthy and an assist from Che Adams, who continues to dodge the goal
• Double Liverpool proved only slightly better with Salah and TAA both getting an assist. TAA got all 3 bonus points despite getting booked and that proved crucial in me crossing 30 after the hit
• :(
• Gameweek rank of 5 million once again
• Captain Werner was a massive disappointment vs West Brom. He did hit the post but Lampard looks like he has no proper plan in terms of his position and he played all over the pitch. Hopefully the return of Pulisic and Ziyech will make him more threatening. 
• KdB and Martial were pretty poor in poor attacking performances from the Manchester clubs. Both the premium assets blanked.
• James Rodriguez looks like he isn't going to be a great FPL asset as he is not even on penalties. He is creative, but I feel he's more likely to assist the assister and pull all the strings from a deeper position.
• Gameweek 4
• Jimenez makes a quick return to the team with a relatively simple fixture run to come.
• Martial makes way because of what looks like a tricky fixture list over the next few weeks
• Still no wildcard. The team looks decent for next week and I'm holding off till the international break at least.
• Saint Maximin is benched as of now, pending news about his injury but Newcastle look atrocious in attack anyway. Perhaps he could come on if Vinagre is dropped for Marcal's return.
• KdB captain against a Leeds side that will hopefully be very open

  

And this is how the table looks after GW 3. My team no longer has the lead and there is some work to do in order to catch up.