39. Man vs Machine Learning: Rank 1586 & a Covid Relief Appeal from India

Firstly, a thank you to all those who checked on me over the past fortnight. I have recovered from all the symptoms of Covid now but I'm still in isolation. With the coronavirus situation in India being near apocalyptic, I count myself lucky that I got away with mild symptoms and home isolation. 

A lack of access to healthcare, oxygen, beds and ICUs is causing havoc across the country.

If you are reading this and you are able to contribute, do consider donating to any of the following organizations below: List of Organizations  

FPL has not been on the forefront of my mind but the team has been ticking along nicely. 

Gameweek 33 saw decent green arrows for both teams with my team reaching a personal best rank of 1.5k

The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 33
• The wildcard was played last week and it turned out to be an okay decision
• Most of the defence disappointed, with the exception of Shaw
• The attackers did better to reach a reasonable total of 58 points
• The Machine got a green arrow to go from 732k to 634k

• Gameweek 34
• The suggested transfer is to get Wood for Watkins. This transfer is not being made because of the likely double gameweek for Villa (which isn't official yet)
• The bench boost is being activated this week
• Captain will be Kane and vice-captain Bruno

Expected number of returns for GW 34-37 per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 33
• The Liverpool game was a massive disappointment, with Jota and Alexander-Arnold both unlucky not to get any returns
• Chelsea double defence got a clean sheet
• Iheanacho and Salah rescued the team with big returns to finish on 63 points
• Green arrow from 2305 to 1586

• Gameweek 34
• No changes have been made yet with the hope that some fixture announcement will be made before the deadline
• Son could come into the team in place of Bruno Fernandes or Maddison
• The plan is to save the other transfer and go into GW 35 with two frees
• Captaincy is on Kane, unless there is some news about his fitness before the deadline

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38. Man vs Machine Learning Gameweek 33: Rank 2305 vs Wildcard

Unfortunately, I have Covid-19 and am still recovering so just the screenshots this week too. I'm feeling much better and am almost back to 100% so next week should be a regular post

The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 32

• Gameweek 33 (Wildcard active: Raphinha is Harrison in the latest draft)

My Team

• Gameweek 32

• Gameweek 33 (Considering Son to Greenwood or Maddison)

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37. Man vs Machine Learning Gameweek 32: Rank 2468

Just the screenshots this week as I'm not well

The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 31

• Gameweek 32

My Team

• Gameweek 31

• Gameweek 32

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36. Man vs Machine Learning Gameweek 31: Wildcard Active

Gameweek 30 was a decent one for both teams with scores crossing 60. The gap is still above 200 points with the scores 2016-1801 with just 8 weeks to go. 

This week sees my team playing the wildcard and this could be a huge turning point for where I end up in the overall rankings

 

The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 30
• Man City kept clean sheet again, but the rest of the defence disappointed
• Bamford blanked but the rest of the attack all returned to get a solid score
• The Machine got a green arrow to go from 777kk to 653k

• Gameweek 31
• The suggested transfer is to get Azpilicueta in for Tierney and it has been made
• The Machine goes 4 at the back this week too, with Cresswell first on the bench
• Double Man City defence and double Leeds attack still forms the identity of the team
• Kane is chosen ahead of Fernandes as captain

Expected number of returns for GW 31-34 per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 30
• Decent gameweek overall, but it could have been much better
• Alonso hit the post twice but Chelsea somehow conceded five goals
• Son was benched and so were the City players
• Raphinha and captain Kane returned in favourable fixtures to get a good score
• Green arrow from 4.8k to 4.4k

• Gameweek 31
• Wildcard is active
• So far, most of the changes have just been made with price changes in mind but the core of the team is more or less settled
• Things to keep in mind are the Spurs DGW and the blank in GW 33 for City and Spurs
• The team looks fairly decent on paper, except for unfavourable fixtures in GW 31
• A decision has to be made on whether to target someone like Sterling vs Leeds as a one game captainncy punt
• Captaincy is on Salah for now, but that heavily depends on what the team looks like closer to deadline

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35. Man vs Machine Learning Gameweek 30 - Final Stretch Starts in the Top 5k

Gameweek 29 was a surprisingly high scoring week and both my team and the machine's team got Gameweek ranks in the top 400k. The gap is still above 200 points with the scores 1954-1732 with just 9 weeks to go.

The chip strategy for the Machine is a bit of a confusing situation for now but the plan remains to build a bench boost team through free transfers over the next couple of weeks and wildcarding out of it in such a way that navigates the GW 33 blank, while of course listening to predictions of the Machine.

Meanwhile, my team hits another personal best rank as it sits in the top 5k. With a wildcard in the pocket, it could be make or break for the season - increasing the variance with the wildcard could be good or bad.

 

On a side note, with all the talk about luck and skill over the international break, I took a look at the top 10 overall ranks and analysed their captaincy picks - to see how 'safe' or 'risky' their picks were. There is a misconception that you need to be super maverick to stand out from the crowd in order to win the whole game. 

Looking at the below table, we notice a few points

• Number of differential captaincy picks: 40 out of 290 (13.8%)
• Number of differential picks that did better than safe picks: 22 out of 40 (55%)
• 86.2% of the time, the overall top 10 players picked one of the top 3 most popular captains (according to the weekly Reddit poll) as their captain
• The 'differential' captains mostly comprised less popular (for that week) but premium players, especially the successful ones - Vardy is probably the most regularly occurring 'maverick' pick, if you can call it that

Captaincy Analysis of Current Overall Top 10

The Machine's Team

• Gameweek 29
• With just four games and 10 players, a score of 65 was highly unexpected
• Brighton vs Newcastle saw a double clean sheet and an assist for Veltman
• Leeds vs Fulham got solid returns for both Raphinha and Bamford. Lookman justified his inclusion by bagging an assist as well
• West Ham-Arsenal was a goal fest. All the weeks of holding Bowen for this blank paid off with a goal from the Hammers man. Cresswell and Tierney did not contribute much to speak of.
• Captain Kane scored a trademark penalty and Watkins blanked again
• The Machine got a green arrow to go from 981k to 777k

• Gameweek 30
• The suggested transfers is to get Shaw in for Dunk and the move has been made
• The Machine goes 4 at the back this week, marginally playing Tierney over Lookman
• Double Man City defence and double Leeds attack still forms the identity of the team
• Kane is chosen ahead of Fernandes as captain

Expected number of returns for GW 30-33 per position according to the Machine

My Team

• Gameweek 29
• Weeks of planning for the blank week decently paid off, with a solid score of 60 points
• Last week's goal scoring hero Dunk got another clean sheet, but it was his teammate Trossard who stole the show with a goal and assist
• Bamford, Raphinha and captain Kane returned in favourable fixtures to get a good score
• Going Aubameyang over Lingard did not pay off as Auba looked listless in his blank
• Green arrow from 7.1k to 4.8k

• Gameweek 30
• No transfer has been made yet
• With the wildcard in the pocket, the initial plan was to go for a one-week punt
• However, with the announcement of a double gameweek in 32 for Spurs and other potential DGWs for Leicester and City in GW 35/36, it could pay to save it for later
• The team looks fairly decent on paper, except for Auba against Liverpool
• Candidate transfers I'm thinking of are Auba straight back to Salah, Auba to Havertz, Dunk to Alonso
• Captaincy is on Kane for now but Bruno has 11 double digit hauls in 29 games, which is an amazing stat. Raphinha could be a great option this week as well. One of them will be my captain by the deadline

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