35. Man vs Machine Learning Gameweek 30 - Final Stretch Starts in the Top 5k

Gameweek 29 was a surprisingly high scoring week and both my team and the machine's team got Gameweek ranks in the top 400k. The gap is still above 200 points with the scores 1954-1732 with just 9 weeks to go.

The chip strategy for the Machine is a bit of a confusing situation for now but the plan remains to build a bench boost team through free transfers over the next couple of weeks and wildcarding out of it in such a way that navigates the GW 33 blank, while of course listening to predictions of the Machine.

Meanwhile, my team hits another personal best rank as it sits in the top 5k. With a wildcard in the pocket, it could be make or break for the season - increasing the variance with the wildcard could be good or bad.

 

On a side note, with all the talk about luck and skill over the international break, I took a look at the top 10 overall ranks and analysed their captaincy picks - to see how 'safe' or 'risky' their picks were. There is a misconception that you need to be super maverick to stand out from the crowd in order to win the whole game. 

Looking at the below table, we notice a few points

  • Number of differential captaincy picks: 40 out of 290 (13.8%)
  • Number of differential picks that did better than safe picks: 22 out of 40 (55%)
  • 86.2% of the time, the overall top 10 players picked one of the top 3 most popular captains (according to the weekly Reddit poll) as their captain
  • The 'differential' captains mostly comprised less popular (for that week) but premium players, especially the successful ones - Vardy is probably the most regularly occurring 'maverick' pick, if you can call it that

Captaincy Analysis of Current Overall Top 10

The Machine's Team

  • Gameweek 29
    • With just four games and 10 players, a score of 65 was highly unexpected
    • Brighton vs Newcastle saw a double clean sheet and an assist for Veltman
    • Leeds vs Fulham got solid returns for both Raphinha and Bamford. Lookman justified his inclusion by bagging an assist as well
    • West Ham-Arsenal was a goal fest. All the weeks of holding Bowen for this blank paid off with a goal from the Hammers man. Cresswell and Tierney did not contribute much to speak of.
    • Captain Kane scored a trademark penalty and Watkins blanked again
    • The Machine got a green arrow to go from 981k to 777k
  • Gameweek 30
    • The suggested transfers is to get Shaw in for Dunk and the move has been made
    • The Machine goes 4 at the back this week, marginally playing Tierney over Lookman
    • Double Man City defence and double Leeds attack still forms the identity of the team
    • Kane is chosen ahead of Fernandes as captain


Expected number of returns for GW 30-33 per position according to the Machine

My Team

  • Gameweek 29
    • Weeks of planning for the blank week decently paid off, with a solid score of 60 points
    • Last week's goal scoring hero Dunk got another clean sheet, but it was his teammate Trossard who stole the show with a goal and assist
    • Bamford, Raphinha and captain Kane returned in favourable fixtures to get a good score
    • Going Aubameyang over Lingard did not pay off as Auba looked listless in his blank
    • Green arrow from 7.1k to 4.8k
  • Gameweek 30
    • No transfer has been made yet
    • With the wildcard in the pocket, the initial plan was to go for a one-week punt
    • However, with the announcement of a double gameweek in 32 for Spurs and other potential DGWs for Leicester and City in GW 35/36, it could pay to save it for later
    • The team looks fairly decent on paper, except for Auba against Liverpool
    • Candidate transfers I'm thinking of are Auba straight back to Salah, Auba to Havertz, Dunk to Alonso
    • Captaincy is on Kane for now but Bruno has 11 double digit hauls in 29 games, which is an amazing stat. Raphinha could be a great option this week as well. One of them will be my captain by the deadline

Follow me on Twitter if you want to keep track of these teams and see the final teams before deadline

No comments:

Post a Comment